Chengdu’s current investment value tends to zero

2022-06-24 0 By

Conclusion: In terms of real estate investment, the current value of Chengdu has basically gone to zero, and there will be no opportunity within 3 years.Why do you say so?Because the policy locks up liquidity, and the time cost is surprisingly high, very high.See policy first: bridal chamber limit buy and limit carry out, and red dish limit carry out 5 years, blame red dish limit carry out 3 years, and it is to produce card to take after calculate.Law pats a room, need to buy a house qualification not only, and same limit sell 3 years.So, you buy a house to Chengdu, no matter be bridal chamber or law pats a house, all limit sell.At the same time, there are second-hand housing prices.The most ruthless plate guiding price is 6 percent of the market price, generally 6-8 percent.Liquidity is locked up.Look at time cost again: 1, new house 2-3 years of delivery, 2, limited to sell 3 years.The time cost is conservatively estimated at 5-6 years.In the meantime, Chengdu handles card unlike Hangzhou, can do within 90 days of delivery.Introduce according to chengdu some senior real estate person, the period house of Chengdu, it is after consign commonly 180 working days or 270 working days development business does a big card, owner just can handle card.Note that the contract is a working day.In other words, 180 working days is actually nine months.After nine months, the owner can apply for a property certificate.However, if you are a mortgage customer, you need to transfer from pre-mortgage to formal mortgage in a period of 3-6 months.That is to say, from delivery to get the certificate of birth still need a year.Conservative estimate, from buy period house to can limit sell, about 6-7 years.After six or seven years of inactivity, there is little point in investing, and even small, steady gains are largely covered by inflation.Look at the urban pattern: Chengdu currently has two major city centers: Tianfu Jincheng Center and Jiaozi Financial Center.Similar to Hangzhou’s Wulin Square, Qianjiang New City.An urban main axis: Tianfu Avenue.Tianfu connects chengdu’s four most important areas: Tianfu Square, City, Nanhu And Tianfu New Area.The core of urban value of Chengdu is basically located in this axis, two centers and four blocks.Understand this basic pattern, then look at the development plan of Chengdu, which is the key to investment value.The biggest feature: in addition to liquidity and time cost, Chengdu’s urban development space has eliminated depressions.The city of Chengdu, like a giant lollipop?.Chengdu is a basin, flat terrain, most of the city is flat, the city to ring line pattern.Chengdu, within 85 kilometers of the city (fourth ring Road), is one ring to another.Within the third ring road is the old base of Chengdu, basically very mature, there is not much room for imagination, the only real estate value highland, is the Pancheng steel plate.Other than that, only the school district has value.And outside the third ring of the old city, the recent move space is also extremely small, that is, two xian Bridge, eight village area, commonly known as the eight plate.This area belongs to factory demolition, which could have been planned as a piece to form a high-end residential area. Chengdu No.7 Middle School, a famous school, was also introduced, but the school carried out a district-wide zoning lottery, and the school district housing failed.Value, of course, will be infinitely diluted.From the third Ring Road to the outside of the city, the city has planned seven new towns in the four directions of the city, east, west and east. Each section is endowed with sufficient stories, and good schools are basically introduced. As a result, the prices of new towns with huge differences in value are not low.That is: Chengdu has no depression, bottom-fishing is almost impossible.And the chengdu lollipop?The handle, that is, from the Tianfu square to the south along the Tianfu Avenue, the pattern has been very stable.Tianfu Avenue is jokingly the world’s longest urban main road.Indeed, the old city does not count. Starting from the Financial City planned outside the third Ring Road, there are three core sections along Tianfu Avenue: Financial City, Nanhu Lake and Tianfu New City.Here’s the magic: it’s about 20 kilometers from the City to the Tianfu New Area, and there’s no fault zone in between.This is unimaginable in Hangzhou.Hangzhou, with Qianjiang New Town as its origin, will have urban fracture no matter which direction you drive 20 miles.This shows that the planning and development of Chengdu once created miracles.With chengdu’s strength, it can only focus on core resources and shape this miracle.It’s impossible to replicate.For a miracle would not be a miracle if it could be repeated all the time.It is also hard for Shanghai to copy Pudong New Area, Shenzhen to copy Qianhai, Guangzhou to copy Zhujiang New City, Hangzhou to copy Future Science and Technology City, and Wuhan to copy Optical Valley.In the miracle of Tianfu Avenue, the current price system is: the City of 40,000 to 50,000 Nanhu 20,000 to 30,000 Tianfu New Area and the whole three ring road and around the city (fourth ring) between the basic mainstream new house price is also in 20,000 to 30,000, individual quality can reach 30,000 +.What is this concept?Not only are there no depressions, but the extended dividend on both sides of Tianfu Avenue, from Tianfu Square to the City and tianfu New Area, 20km to the south, has been unleashed.On this line, the southern lake near the national God pan lu Lake, the highest peak of the transaction price to 60-70 thousand, but currently generally around 40 thousand.Tianfu New Area, the southernmost part of Bonus, has the classic Tianxi F4: Poly and Guangyu Lake, Vanke Tianfu Splendid, The First open Longhu Cloud, And Weilan Cartier Garden City.In these games, there is no room for investors. On the contrary, only one of them, Guangyu Lake, has become a national red disk. As a result, he is not allowed to play in the other three games, and F4 becomes F3.Almost any real estate, it is difficult to dig opportunities.Unless, of course, you really want to buy, hold, and grow with the city.However, Chengdu is another city that is not worth keeping for a long time.Chengdu is only the middle state of China’s real estate food chain, and its development is a model to strengthen the provincial capital. Behind it is the whole Sichuan and even the southwest, as well as some parts of the northwest, such as Southwest Petroleum University, which has attracted a large number of students’ families from Qinghai oilfield.And the better people from Sichuan and even the southwest will inevitably go to the capital, the Yangtze river Delta and the Pearl River Delta.Especially the Pearl River Delta, sichuan people especially like.Now that the rest of Sichuan is hollowed out, where does Chengdu go?I haven’t figured it out yet.But there is no immediate answer.Chengdu is also looking for the answer, so it plans a huge pie: it will be a mountain with two wings, instead of two mountains sandwiched by a city.The plan is something like this: namely, the seven new towns outside the old city have not been built yet, and a brand new place has been built 50 or 60 kilometers away from the city center.This pie, it’s gonna take 30 years to make.This cake is really too big, ordinary people really can not swallow, this big cake, there are two phenomena, can provide reference: first, this city is too leisurely.A city that drinks tea and boasts its ears, a city that waits in line for two hours to eat, a city that is not keen on making money, is not destined to attract people to make a lot of money.Hangzhou can become the present Hangzhou, is from the west Lake side of the comfortable to the surging Qiantang River.If Hangzhou were still comfortable, it would not be the city it is now.Second, southwest housing enterprises thunder tide.In this wave of real estate enterprises, southwest real estate enterprises are particularly common, such as Changtai, Blue light, association and so on.And the national layout of housing enterprises, the southwest region, but also generally poor performance of the region.Why is that?Because behind, is the southwest city in the overall collapse.How it’s gonna collapse? I don’t know.However, chengdu behind the bottom of the warehouse, has been very unstable.